The steady stream of sex and legal scandals is undermining the ‘Sánchez model’

“It is in the Spanish people’s interest to have this government,” said Pedro Sánchez at his end-of-year press conference, listing his government’s economic and social achievements. The fact is, however, that the Spanish people do not seem convinced.

Opinion polls point to a strong lead for the centre-right: the Partido Popular (PP) and the right-wing Vox party together hold 200 out of 350 seats. But the problem is that not even the PSOE’s allies, within the fractured majority that elected Sánchez, are convinced any longer. Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, of the left-wing Sumar party, is calling for a cabinet reshuffle. ERC, the Catalan pro-independence left-wing party, says it no longer wants to “continue to be ashamed every day” by supporting this government. The far-left Podemos describes it as a “political corpse”. But how is it possible that the “Sánchez model”, so highly regarded in Italy by Elly Schlein’s PD, is so despised by his allies in Spain?

The deep crisis facing the Sánchez government seems inexplicable, given that Spain’s GDP is growing by 2.9 per cent this year – double the European average – and is forecast to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026, the highest rate among the major European countries after Poland. This is well above the Italian, German and French rates, which are all just above zero. Since 2019 – Sánchez has been in power since 2017 – the Spanish economy has seen cumulative growth of 10 per cent, compared with 6.4 per cent for the eurozone. These extremely positive figures, however, are the result of a more complex reality.

Although Spain does not face the same problems of falling productivity as Italy, a large part of its economic growth is due to population growth. According to data from the Real Instituto Elcano, following the pandemic, Spain has seen an annual influx of 600,000 immigrants; currently, immigrants – mainly from Latin America – number 9 million out of a total population of around 50 million, and account for 23 per cent of the workforce (one in four): 90 per cent of the new jobs created between January 2024 and March 2025 were filled by immigrants.

On the one hand, this has caused social tensions, fuelling support for Vox’s agenda on immigration and security; on the other, it has led to economic problems because demographic pressure has exacerbated the chronic issue of high housing costs. Against a backdrop where unemployment remains above 10 per cent and inflation has outpaced wages, which in real terms are still around 5 per cent lower than pre-Covid levels. However, overall, particularly when compared with the rest of Europe, the Spanish economy is in good health.

The crisis facing the Sánchez government is primarily political. On the one hand, there is the nature of the ‘Frankenstein’ majority that allowed Sánchez to remain in the Moncloa despite his defeat by the PP in the 2023 snap elections, but which now highlights the incompatibility of a coalition ranging from the far left to the Catalan independence right, right through to the political heirs of the Basque ETA terrorists. On the other hand, there is the steady stream of legal and now sexual scandals that has for too long been undermining the PSOE’s leadership, affecting those closest to Sánchez.

First came the investigations into the Prime Minister’s wife and brother, accused of influence-peddling and favouritism. Then came the arrests for corruption of the PSOE’s last two organisational secretaries, the formerly powerful Transport Minister José Luis Ábalos and Santos Cerdán, men who enjoyed the Prime Minister’s utmost trust: they were the fellow passengers in the Peugeot 407, the founding legend of ‘Sanchism’ – the tour of Spain through which Sánchez regained the leadership of the PSOE and then brought down the Rajoy government in Parliament in the name of clean governance and the fight against corruption. Now, there are countless senior Socialist leaders accused or charged with corruption.

Added to this is the PSOE’s own ‘MeToo’ scandal, with a party leader resigning almost every day over allegations of sexual harassment. The first to go was Paco Salazar, a close aide to Sánchez at Moncloa, who was due to replace the arrested Ábalos and Cerdán. This is too much for a party that describes itself as “feminist” and a bulwark against the “machismo” of the right. On Sunday, regional elections are due to take place in Extremadura, a historic Socialist stronghold, where the polls point to a victory for the PP and an unprecedented defeat for the PSOE.

Sánchez’s Peugeot seems to have run out of petrol. In Italy, L’Espresso named him “Person of the Year” and the Spanish Prime Minister shared the cover on his social media, but both seem to be viewing reality through the rear-view mirror: L’Espresso is glorifying what was, a few years ago, a strong and popular progressive leader, whilst Sánchez is promoting what was, a few decades ago, an influential progressive weekly. Looking at reality through the windscreen, El País, the leading Spanish left-wing daily, devotes pages to the PSOE’s political and credibility crisis, urging the leader to take action.

Sánchez, on the other hand, intends to carry on like this until 2027, without a majority and without ever having passed a Budget Bill, because – he says – his government is in the Spanish people’s best interests. However, he has no intention of asking the Spanish people whether they feel the same way, either through their representatives in Parliament by means of a vote of confidence, or directly through snap elections. A progressive in Andreotti style: better to muddle through than to kick the bucket.